Delhi Debacle - BJP Generals and Commander Score a Self Goal

Written on 7 Feb 2015, before the results were announced on 10 Feb
The Modi – Shah Juggernaut has come to a grinding halt in Delhi after rolling strongly and victoriously for some time now. So, come Delhi elections, many in the country took a BJP victory as granted. Let’s analyse what went wrong for BJP. 

I start by appreciating Amit Shah’s proven strategy at the booth level management of an election. About 2 lakhs Panna Pramukhs & Booth Pramukhs, the foot soldiers of the party, were mobilised and I'm pretty sure that all these Karyakarta did a splendid job. I can imagine the zeal & passion of these foot soldiers, especially when they are sensing victory, believing in the Modi magic and add to that the might of RSS in the form of Pracharaks and their network, though a BJP Karyakarta and a Swayam Sevak often overlap. But when this dedicated cadre performed well, as per party expectations, why is BJP on the receiving end?

It seems the reason for this poor showing lies at the very top. The Generals, without an effective field Commander, have scored a self goal.

One, there was an unnecessary delay of 6 to 7 months in holding elections. The Indian love for brand Modi was at its peak then and the AAP was in disarray. The delay meant losing this advantage.

Two, Modi government’s performance in these 8 months worked as a disadvantage. Granted, that Modi has done well on a few counts, like being corruption free at the government level. The foreign policy front, although he has emerged more as a Foreign Minister, than a PM, and Obama observations have been embarrassing. Modi brand is a positive 'sentiment' for the big business and the stock market. Only a sentiment. The economic indices from manufacturing are not encouraging. Yet there seems to be non governance or routine governance, like UPA, for the man on street, especially in Delhi. Modi has nothing to show for Delhi in 8 months of rule. Instead, the country has seen reversal of positions or U turns, failed promises and following the UPA line. Amit Shah’s Jumla remark was damaging and admission of the same. The benefit of falling international crude oil prices has not been passed on fully and the people understand this, educated more by the social media. Such steps impact the man on the street directly. Suffice here to say that Modi first raised expectations roof high, then he did not deliver, this shifted the balance and hope towards Kejriwal. The Modi magic actually got transferred to Kejriwal rather than Kiran Bedi.

Three, Modi faltered in strategy by abandoned his proven mantra of development and selling dreams. Instead he put up a negative campaign of name calling, which worked elsewhere due to the country’s frustration and anger against the Congress and its leadership. This generated sympathy for and lionized Kejriwal. In this election Modi did a Congress and Kejriwal did a Modi.

Four, Amit Shah miscalculated the strategy by making it a PM vs CM election. I think, for the first time in BJP history, a state election has been fought by the national BJP rather than the state BJP. Almost all aspects of the campaign were directly handled at the top.

Five, Amit Shah – Jaitely duo para dropping Kiran Bedi was a bad idea and it boomeranged. The national President, basking in the glory of recent successes, committed the biggest blunder of abandoning the winning formula of going leaderless and fighting the election jointly and letting the electorate relate to Modi. By naming Kiran Bedi as the leader, without any concurrence and against the wishes of the party, Shah-Jaitely duo hit the final nail in the coffin. In one sweep, Amit Shah bypassed and belittled all the leadership and organisation of Delhi BJP and alienated the voters from Modi in the process, by creating a buffer. It is another thing to impose an outsider at a constituency level, it is another thing to impose an outsider to be the leader and CM. When the entire media called it a master stroke, I laughed and thought that it was a suicidal stroke and put a comment to this effect on facebook.

Six, Kiran Bedi, true to her nature, showed her lack of political understanding for the position being thrust upon her in her very first address to the party men. She carried the files of news clippings of Modi to every TV show, as if that was the qualification for a CM of a state in India. The BJP forgot that during the Anna phase, Kiran Bedi was the weakest link, the chink in the armour. She was the one with theatrics and intolerance. Even on the polling day she climbed on a car roof and did a Milkha Singh accompanied by irritating sound bites! Humility was absent during the entire campaign.

Seven, the very reason why Kiran Bedi was roped in, was working against her. She was brought in to counter Kejriwal as regards honesty, goodwill, performance, credibility and acceptance. Her very joining politics was seen as opportunistic. First, she was against joining politics and had parted ways with Kejriwal on this very issue. Second, she fought against the ills of the system all her life and without batting an eyelid she became comfortable with and justified this corrupt and unethical existing system. Her credibility and acceptance took a hit, though invisible to the BJP. She was just hitchhiking, taking a free ride on the Modi bandwagon, without any contribution before or during (and I doubt after) the election.

Eight, the Kiran Bedi effect, arising from her careless remarks, led BJP to abandon their long standing demand for Delhi statehood. It also led to bypassing the Manifesto. The Vision document was late in the day and vague. Add to that the Ps and Ss, or whatever, of Kiran Bedi. I wonder, even if Modi and Shah understood her programme for Delhi, let alone the voters of Delhi. She did not do her homework before coming in public.

The only silver lining for the BJP is the dedicated might and the fight of its foot soldiers, the Karyakarta, the fighting fit machinery at the booth level. A great organisational strength at the grassroots and the arrogant, haughty and faulty strategy of the generals and lack of commander in the field, that’s BJP in Delhi 2015, scoring the self goal.